Popular cryptanalyst and Bitcoin proponent PlanB has outlined the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin in July.
An analyst who has a lot of fans listening to in the crypto community and who has gained a huge following through the application of the stock-to-flow (S2F) model to bitcoin believes that S2F has reached a fateful milestone. It will either confirm its validity, or it will be completely useless for the next six months.
S2F has traditionally been applied to commodities such as gold and silver. It predicts the performance of an asset based on the thesis that the price increases as the asset becomes more scarce.
PlanB used S2F to predict if Bitcoin could surpass $ 288,000 in this bull run, however it informed its 609,000 followers that BTC’s bearish price movement is challenging the pattern.
«June closing price of $ 35,037 … Well below the S2F, so the next six months will be critical for the S2F.»
According to PlanB, the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin this month is the close of the month at $ 28,000. If we talk about next month in August, then the worst-case scenario for the close could be $ 47,000.
“My network data (the color overlay in the chart below) suggests that this bull cycle is not over yet and 64K was not a top. This is consistent with the s2f (x) model. Also my bottom indicator (not based on s2f) says we will not be below 47k by the close of August. «
PlanB added that each Bitcoin bull cycle becomes less volatile and therefore peaks at a lower price than the previous one. According to him, the next six months will determine whether BTC will indeed hit the six-digit range by the end of the bull race.
“It looks like I abandoned the diminishing returns scenario too early. In the next 6 months, this will be a key moment:
1) Was $ 64,000 the maximum and will we fluctuate between 25 and 50 thousand dollars?
2) Or was $ 64,000 not the high and the bull market towards S2F from $ 100,000 to $ 288,000 will continue?I’ll bet on both scenarios at once. «
