21.06.2024

Bitcoin is still far from its record in the current growth cycle: an analyst’s opinion

The level of 60 thousand dollars has been a serious obstacle to further growth of Bitcoin for several weeks. Buyers of the cryptocurrency have previously tried to push its price to a new all-time high, but the pressure from the sellers has not diminished yet.

However, according to a cryptocurrency trader under the pseudonym PlanB, the growth stage is still far from its global peak.

Recall that PlanB is the author of the well-known Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which has been predicting Bitcoin price movement with high accuracy for several years now. It is based on the limited maximum volume of BTC coins and a decrease in the rate of their release.

Recall that there will be no more than 21 million bitcoins , but every 210 thousand blocks in the cryptocurrency network, the emission rate of new BTC drops exactly twice. Now for the found block, miners are charged 6.25 bitcoin, and until May 2020 the figure was 12.5 BTC. This event is known as halving and in fact this mechanism makes the cryptocurrency more rare in the context of new coins.

What will happen to the Bitcoin rate

The Stock-to-Flow model is the ratio of asset stocks to capital inflows. S2F can also be applied to gold, and the precious metal itself has one of the highest rates in this model among all traditional assets. All because of the scarce nature of gold: every year its production is predictable and very limited, which, against the background of growing demand, contributes to an increase in its price.

In the case of Bitcoin, the authors obtained an even higher S2F value, since the maximum amount of BTC is limited to 21 million coins . As we have already noted, the emission of new bitcoins approximately every four years is reduced exactly by half during the halving procedure. This fact, combined with the possible growth of interest in blockchain assets, allowed PlanB to build an approximate path for the movement of cryptocurrency value in the future.

On his Twitter account, he noted that, according to S2F, it is still too early to talk about a change in the global bullish trend to a bearish one. Here’s a quote from Cointelegraph.

It seems to me that the bullish trend has only lasted for the last four months and has not yet reached its peak. For Bitcoin, everything is just beginning.

То есть аналитик предполагает, что нынешний рекорд Биткоина в 61 тысячу долларов не продержится очень долго.

Stock-to-Flow model Bitcoin cryptocurrency

Predicted Bitcoin Price Movement According to Stock-to-Flow

Note that such predictions of cryptocurrency behavior are not required to come true. They may turn out to be incorrect, so you should not take them into account when making financial decisions. Be sure to do your own research before any investment.

Another well-known Bitcoin fan, Tony Weiss, has a similar point of view. Here is a quote from his recent interview.

Bitcoin is in the phase of consolidation, but I am still optimistic. Although BTC may still fall to a local low in the $ 48K range, I believe we will rise above the $ 70K line by June.

Bitcoin chart cryptocurrency trading

Bitcoin price increase over the past 90 days

It is noteworthy that the new wave of Bitcoin growth this time may also be facilitated by an increase in the inflow of individual investors and users of digital assets. It will be caused by the hype around the sphere of unique NFT tokens and the activity of large organizations that are now investing in Bitcoin. This idea was voiced by the CEO of Crypto.com platform Chris Marshalek.

According to a study by Crypto.com experts, conducted in February this year, over the nearly ten-year history of Bitcoin, the number of active users of digital assets has approached the 100 million mark , that is, approximately 1 percent of the total population of the world. Marshalek is confident that another 100 million will be interested in crypto in a much shorter time.

The growth of users from 100 to 200 million will take much less time than the growth of the same indicator from 50 to 100 million.

Here is a transcript of a conversation with an expert. We recommend that you familiarize yourself if you understand English by ear.

Marshalek explained that the growing network effect of the cryptoindustry and the combination of several popular trends at once will play an important role in this. The arrival of large organizations in the crypto space has signaled to many that the massive adoption of digital assets is already under way.

According to Marshalek, the participation of players such as Tesla and MicroStrategy instills confidence in the crypto for those who are not yet using Bitcoin or altcoins. The expert continues.

There are simply a number of financial institutions that are now investing a certain part of their assets in bitcoins. So all this leads to active market movement.

Another important factor is the popularization of unique NFT tokens. This trend has become the hottest topic of 2021. The NBA, Jack Dorsey and some of the most prestigious auction houses in the world have made millions of dollars from NFT. Marshalek is confident that celebrities, whose number of subscribers in social networks reaches tens of millions of people, popularize unique tokens even among people far from the cryptoindustry. They will join the camp of digital asset users.

Popular culture today is led by influencers who simply surf the Internet. This is the perfect time for NFTs to go mainstream.

So far, we believe the cryptocurrency industry doesn’t really seem overheated as it did at the end of 2017. In addition, Bitcoin and other coins are going through a correction phase, making their surge more organic and logical. Therefore, it is likely that the case really will not end at the BTC record of 61 thousand.

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