The bitcoin rate for the first time in a month exceeded the $ 50,000 level this Tuesday. The rise in BTC over the past day is about 5%.
Every 4 years, the fourth quarter saw an explosive rise in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) . For example, in 2013, the value of the first cryptocurrency in three months soared by 481%, from $ 132 to $ 767, at its peak rising above $ 1120.
And in 2017, the bitcoin rate showed an increase of 225%, from October 1 to January 1, rising from $ 4.3 thousand to $ 14 thousand, on December 17, setting a historical maximum of $ 19.4 thousand at that time, writes RBC Crypto .
“It all depends on the mood of the regulators”
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may well go up in the fourth quarter of this year, if a favorable environment develops for this, says Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets. However, the possibility of a correction in the stock market (the prospects for such an event are growing every day, as inflation remains high in the US, which will force the Fed to quickly roll back soft monetary policy) is also a danger for digital assets, the specialist warned.
“In the event of a correction on stock exchanges, bitcoin and other currencies will begin to sink with them, which has already happened this year more than once,” Deev said.
He named another factor that could negatively affect the market: the Federal Reserve (FRS) is preparing to consider the advantages and prospects of introducing its own digital currency in the United States. And this means that in the United States, the same large-scale attack on the crypto market as in China can begin, Deyev is sure.
Crypto assets, not regulated by the Central Bank, are becoming a serious tax evasion tool and compete with the digital dollar (which the Fed is likely to introduce in the country).
“Everything for the market depends on the mood of the regulators, on the news regarding the strengthening of regulation. If these events do not happen, bitcoin may quite gradually increase in value and reach the highs of the beginning of this year, ”the expert predicted.
“Investor Focus Is on Updating Taproot”
The curtailment of stimulus measures in the US could lead to an outflow of funds and fixation of positions on most assets, warned the head of the data analysis department of CEX.IO Broker Yuri Mazur. According to recent statements by the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, if the labor market in the United States shows strong enough data, the Fed may begin to phase out bond buybacks as early as November. This is a factor that will globally influence the behavior of market participants and is most likely viewed by investors as bearish, Mazur warned.
He believes that at the moment the focus of crypto investors is most likely directed towards the update of the Bitcoin network called Taproot , which is scheduled for November . If it passes without overlaps, then this can lead to an increase in the value of the asset, the analyst says. However, he stressed that, first of all, investors will focus on the global factor of reducing the stimulus for the economy.
“Therefore, if there is growth on the internal resources of the cryptocurrency market, market participants will adjust their positions in accordance with the behavior of the US Federal Reserve System. If the Fed sees no reason to wind down stimulus in November, it is likely that Bitcoin will rise to levels above $ 55K. If the Fed does not make such a Christmas present to investors, the upward trend in digital assets will stall or even bitcoin will go into a protracted correction, ”the expert predicted.
“We are waiting for the New Year rally”
Usually, the IV quarter is positive for bitcoin, so in the next three months its price may exceed $ 65 thousand and reach $ 80-100 thousand, according to Vladimir Smetanin, CEO of the Swiss financial company Newcent. He suggested that the stage of consolidation, in which the market is now, will last until mid-late November. After that, the expert expects a significant increase in the first cryptocurrency, as well as Ethereum up to $ 7-8 thousand (now the asset price is $ 3.3 thousand)
“New money and new funds continue to enter the market, now there are 3 applications for ETF creation in the SEC, we hope that this time they will be satisfied. We are waiting for the pre-New Year rally, ”concluded Smetanin.
He added that the risks include the collapse of the traditional market, which in the short term could lead to a correction in cryptocurrencies.