The author of the controversial bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) price model said that at current prices the S2F model is “perfectly on track.” S2F shows the price could hit around $30,000 by the year’s end and by August 2021 prices could be $100,000 per bitcoin.
The crypto asset bitcoin (BTC) is up over 24% over the last 30 days and up more than 16% during the last 90 days. BTC touched a 2020 high of just above $12,000 per coin before tumbling 10.9% last Sunday.
With the price giving traders optimism many speculators wonder if crypto assets are about to witness another massive bull run. On August 1, the author of the contested S2F price model told his 121,000 Twitter followers that the model is on track.
“I can’t make a chart for you now (at sea), but the S2F model is perfectly on track”, Plan B wrote on Saturday.
“We’re going parabolic”, an individual tweeted in response to Plan B’s tweet.
? fixed at $9132
?? fixed at $11356
??? currently $11700
I can’t make a chart for you now (at sea), but S2F model perfectly on track. pic.twitter.com/rJGuKyxPKG
– PlanB ??? (@100trillionUSD) August 1, 2020
Plan B’s popular editorial called “Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity” has caught the attention of the community for quite some time. However, not everyone is a believer in the S2F price model and the model has received a bunch of criticism.
News.Bitcoin.com reported on Francis Tapon’s critique of the S2F model and the digital currency proponent Eric Wall has criticized Plan B’s S2F model as well. Steve Barbour the owner of Upstream Data tweeted:
The S2F model is the used car salesman approach to memeing bitcoin to the moon.
“S2F is just a flawed measure for scarcity”, Barbour continued. “Bitcoin is not scarce because it has a high S2F ratio, it has a high S2F ratio because it is scarce. I believe Bitcoin reaches the moon because it is incredibly useful to society. If it was just the S2F ratio then someone would fork a better one.”
Despite the criticism, the S2F subject is extremely popular on Twitter and was trending the day Plan B tweeted about the model being perfectly on track. “The current annual new supply flow of bitcoin is ~328,725.00 units”, tweeted Robert Breedlove.
“By the year 2100, the annual new supply flow of Bitcoin will contract by 6 orders of magnitude to ~0.31 units. During this time, Bitcoin’s S2F ratio will increase over 1,118,659X. Buy bitcoin, because math”, Breedlove added.
“Bitcoin is almost back at the line that’s supposed to bring us to 100K ~1 year from now”, Tweeted Bit Harrington on August 1. “Remember, the idea/model states we will move around this line. Both below and above the line. What if Plan B is right? What if stock-to-flow is real?” Harrington asked.
“Raise your kids right. Learn them S2F”, the bitcoiner Hodlberry said on Tuesday. On Monday Conner Brown wrote: “I don’t pretend to understand any of the math behind S2F, but an anonymous quant coming up with a model that completely blows the crypto brainiacs out of the water just feels right for bitcoin.”
“Quants support it and that’s good enough for me”, an individual responded to Brown’s tweet. “If it fails, it’s just a model anyway.”
Plan B also recently changed his model as he measured “phase transitions” of assets like the U.S. dollar removing its gold backing. The new price model is dubbed “S2FX” and it suggests BTC could hit $288,000 by the end of 2023.
The S2F model is and has always been controversial as people believe the technical analysis is no better than models like Elliott Waves and Hyperwaves. All three models have been compared to the like of tarot cards for a number of reasons.
With Elliot Waves, for instance, people complain that there is no way to gauge the beginning and end of every wave cycle correctly.