04.10.2024

Asia stocks eke out another peak, China trade data mixed

Asian shares eked out another decade peak on Wednesday as data showed China’s demand for imports remained buoyant, while the dollar dipped amid concerns Republican plans for major U.S. tax cuts were running into headwinds.

Beijing reported imports in October rose 17.2 percent from a year earlier, beating forecasts of 16 percent, but export growth was just under estimates at 6.9 percent.

China’s blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 gained 0.8 percent to reach ground last trod in mid-2015.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS erased early losses to rise 0.24 percent, its highest since November 2007.

Japan’s Nikkei .N225 fell 0.2 percent, though that followed its best close since 1992, and Australia’s main index notched its loftiest reading since 2008.

Dealers said EMini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 slipped 0.14 percent on a report by the Washington Post that Senate Republican leaders were considering a one-year delay in the implementation of a corporate tax cut, a centerpiece of the House plan.

Investors were also keeping an eye on President Donald Trump’s Asian trip as he offered a stern warning to North Korea over its nuclear ambitions.

In the currency market, trading was described as a “random walk” by analysts at Citi with no clear trend to follow.

The dollar was a slim 0.07 percent lower at 94.843 .DXY against a basket of currencies, having again failed to clear resistance around 95.150.

It was 0.2 percent lower on the yen at 113.79 JPY=, but well within the 112.96/114.74 range of the past 12 sessions.

The euro touched a nearly four-month trough at $1.1552 overnight in the wake of disappointing German industrial data, but quickly steadied in Asia to around $1.1597 EUR=.

FLAT CURVES

Wall Street had taken a breather on Tuesday after again making record peaks. The Dow .DJI ended up 0.04 percent, while the S&P 500 .SPX lost 0.02 percent and the Nasdaq .IXIC 0.27 percent.

The S&P 500 financial index .SPSY led decliners with a 1.33 percent fall, in part on concerns a flattening yield curve would crimp profits at banks that borrow short to lend long.

The U.S. yield curve has flattened sharply in the last couple of weeks, with the gap between two- and 10-year yields shrinking to just 68 basis points, the smallest since 2007.

The move largely reflects wagers the Fed is determined to hike in December, pushing up short-term yields. Such a move was likely to ensure inflation stays lower for longer, thus pulling down longer-dated yields and flattening the curve.

Flatter curves are sometimes harbingers of slower economic growth, but can also signal excessive risk taking as investors lend for longer and longer in search of better returns.

Oil markets were dominated by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s move to shore up his power base with the arrest of royals, ministers and investors, which an official described as part of “phase one” of a crackdown.

Tensions also escalated between OPEC members Saudi Arabia and Iran, which analysts said did more to rattle the oil market than the prince’s purge. O/R

After reaching a two-and-a-half year top on Monday, Brent crude futures LCOc1 pulled back 16 cents to $63.53 a barrel. U.S. crude CLc1 was off 21 cents at $56.99.

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