Bitcoin has a 9% Probability of Exceeding $100k by Sept. 2021

Bitcoin Inches Closer to $40k. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $39,600 and is only $400 shy of the $40k price ceiling.

If Bitcoin achieves the latter, chances are that it will go on to fulfill the $50k price prediction made by numerous analysts last year.

Furthermore, Bitcoin breaking $40k today or tomorrow would mean that it would have doubled in value within a span of three weeks. One needs only to remember that $20k was broken on December 16th, 2020, to fathom the pace of this Bitcoin bull-run.

Bitcoin Proves to Be Immune to Geopolitical Issues

Bitcoin’s push towards $40k is also happening at a time when the United States is coming to terms with the invasion of Capitol Hill by Trump supporters. Such an event would normally have caused considerable market selling but Bitcoin has kept pumping despite the turmoil. Crypto analyst and enthusiast, Andrew Kong, best summarized this observation via the following statement.

BTC is now impervious to negative geopolitical events. Global uncertainty doesn’t hurt, but actually helps fuel its utility and belief


  • Bitcoin has a 9% probability of exceeding $100k by September 2021
  • This is according to options prices on the various derivatives platform
  • Deribit has introduced a December 2021 Bitcoin options contract with a $200k strike price
  • Bitcoin is a few hundred dollars away from $40k
  • BTC has proven resilient amidst uncertain times in the US

Bitcoin has a 9% probability of exceeding $100,000 by September of this year. This is according to options prices on the various Bitcoin derivatives platforms. This fact was highlighted by the team at Skew via the following Tweet and accompanying chart demonstrating Bitcoin’s chances at exceeding various prices including $100k.

Deribit Introduces he $200k Strike on Options that Expire December 2021

The analysis by Skew is further reiterated by the Deribit exchange recently adding the $200k strike on the December 2021 Bitcoin Options Contract. Such a strike sounds a bit unrealistic but could become a reality based on the pace at which Bitcoin is gaining in the crypto markets.

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