24.10.2021

Bitcoin is only at the very beginning of a new stage of growth

According to analysts, despite its rapid growth in recent years, Bitcoin is unlikely to seriously collapse in the near future and gain a foothold at lows.

Moreover, the price rally of the first cryptocurrency has just begun, because most individual investors are still “sleeping”, plus there is no such huge hype around BTC as in 2017. The fact of being at the “start” in this marathon is confirmed by three factors: the popularity of Bitcoin on Twitter, Wikipedia and Google.

Analysis of the data on the noted platforms clearly shows how great the interest of retail investors in cryptocurrency is. Yet, when interest in a new topic arises, many people not only write about it on their own Twitter, but also actively research the basics of the topic using Google or Wikipedia.

This information primarily provides data on new investors who were not previously familiar with the cryptocurrency and blockchain niche. Nevertheless, advanced users with certain knowledge are unlikely to go to study Wikipedia when there are enough specialized resources on the Internet on this topic.

What will happen to Bitcoin next

Let’s start with the first factor – mentions of Bitcoin on Twitter. According to the analytical resource TheTIE, the number of tweets is approximately the same as in January 2018, when BTC has already managed to update a new local maximum of the rate and move down. We can say that there is hype up to a certain level, but the dynamics of its growth is almost imperceptible.

Here is an up-to-date timeline on which you can see the current trends. Analytical material leads Cointelegraph.

That is, people see big headlines in the news about Bitcoin from time to time, sometimes they mention cryptocurrency on a social platform. However, until now it remains “off the radar” of an ordinary Twitter user. This means that there are still enough people in this social network who invest in it in the future in the wake of universal popularity, but so far they may not even know about it.

This theory is supported by a second indicator – the popularity of requests for Bitcoin on Wikipedia. Just take a look at this chart, where the skyrocketing price of BTC in 2020 coincided with only a subtle jump. But at the end of 2017, the excitement around the main cryptocurrency was so great that a lot of people read about it on Wiki.

And since people who do not quite understand the topic and want to get acquainted with its basics most often go to Wikipedia for general information, this confirms the fact that the current race is not massive. Still, more advanced cryptocurrency enthusiasts know certain thematic resources that have the correct information, and not a simple translation of already known materials.

Finally, the last metric is the number of searches for Bitcoin on Google. According to Google Trends, in this perhaps the most astonishing chart, Bitcoin is less popular this week than it was in early December or even November. Even in May, when another halving of Bitcoin took place – that is, a reduction in the reward for a block of cryptocurrency, the latter was more popular than it is now.

Recall that this is due to the popular theory that it is halving that leads to an increase in the Bitcoin rate for several months after it. However, we do not quite agree with this theory.

All this can be explained by the seemingly strange logic of behavior of ordinary investors. They are afraid to buy an asset that has seriously fallen in price and ignore all the opportunities to make money on a potential bull run. Instead, newcomers often run headlong to exchanges after Bitcoin becomes “overheated” – including institutional investors.

And ideally, everything should be done exactly the opposite: follow the smart money and do not miss the opportunity in the form of another noticeable BTC dump. Just during rollbacks, one should actively accumulate cryptocurrency, expecting its further growth. At the very least, this tactic is used by advanced investors.

We believe that these metrics really indicate a relatively small popularity of the cryptocurrency niche among ordinary retail investors, who are pushing prices to new highs before its collapse. So far, the growth of Bitcoin and other coins has been mainly provided by large companies that have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in BTC, and they did it openly.

Accordingly, the main fun phase in the coin industry has not yet arrived. And as the whole of 2017 shows, it’s really worth the wait.

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