The latest data appearing on social media courtesy of the Twitter analyst known as Skew, highlighted the odds for investors betting on the future Bitcoin price had been slowly decreasing throughout 2019.
Bitcoin price is only 7% likely to hit its previous all-time high of $20,000 before 2020, according to market forecasts.
According to the data, which came via derivatives platforms LedgerX and Deribit, those chances of a return to $20,000 before the end of the year were 93% unlikely as of Aug. 27.
No expectation of Bitcoin price miracle in 2019
In comments, Skew noted October’s deadline for United States regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve two Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) should produce a watershed moment for markets.
“October should be the most interesting month for bitcoin with two ETF applications under review by the SEC”, it wrote.
All eyes on October?
According to LedgerX’s Oracle, meanwhile, as of press time, the chances of BTC/USD hitting $15,000 by Dec. 28 are currently much higher at 31%.
The higher numbers coincide with bullish tones coming from some of Bitcoin’s best-known figures, including author and angel investor Muard Mahmudov, who on Tuesday claimed Bitcoin had found its new floor at $10,000.
“~10K is the new ~6K”, but instead of breaking down it will hold and start grinding UP”, he opined on Twitter.
Others were eyeing closer timeframes, such as the end of August, the settlement date for the latest round of Bitcoin futures contracts.
Controversial UK Party Becomes Nation’s First to Reveal Crypto Policy
A far-right party in the United Kingdom has published what it describes as the country’s first coherent cryptocurrency policy.
On Aug. 24, the National Liberal Party (NLP) wrote a post on its website arguing that the U.K.’s current cryptocurrency policy is non-existent – and alleged the government has failed to take a stance on regulation.
Failures of the political mainstream
The NLP struck an alarmist tone in its post – claiming “UK Citizens have been defrauded by crypto criminals to the tune of billions” and that fraudulent cryptocurrency schemes continue to target consumers and operate with impunity.
It goes on to characterize the official policy of the U.K’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) as troubling, citing the following paragraph as evidence of the watchdog’s failure to protect the public:
“Consumers should be mindful of the absence of certain regulatory protections when considering purchasing unregulated cryptoassets. Unregulated cryptoassets (e.g. Bitcoin, Ether, XRP etc.) are not covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme and consumers do not have recourse to the Financial Ombudsman Service.”
While the incumbent Conservative government has stated that crypto regulation is necessary, the NLP claims it has failed to implement any such program. The opposition Labour Party was also criticised, with the post adding:
“The Labour Party … believes Cryptocurrency is a Ponzi Scheme and would regulate it out of business according to Diane Abbot speaking as Shadow Home Secretary.”
“The NLP believes cryptocurrency is here to stay”
The NLP claims it “stands for the future of finance and integrity” and that it has taken the time to understand new financial technologies rather than ignore or attempt to eliminate them.
The party’s post also acknowleged that cryptocurrency is here to stay, and can offer an alternative to traditional fiat currencies – supplying wealth, capital and jobs if political actors are willing to cultivate it responsibly.
When it comes to the criminal misuse of cryptocurrency, the NLP’s policy says offenders should be subject to the same punishments as money launderers. It also proposes that:
“Victims of cryptocurrency crime and fraud should be compensated from a fund established by the cryptocurrencies and exchanges that do business in the UK. If a voluntary fund cannot be established, a transactional tax should be imposed to fund the initiative.”
The NLP also wants the FCA to reverse its policy of allegedly ignoring the new asset class by providing strong support for fraud victims and pursuing initiatives designed to promote cryptocurrency as well as its self-regulation.
This, the party claims, will “make the UK a center of legitimate cryptocurrency finance and not the center for crypto crimes that it is today.”
Earlier this month, Stephen Bannon – co-founder of Breitbart News and former chief strategist for President Donald Trump’s administration – said that he sees Bitcoin as part of a “global populist revolt.”