While a 100% sure profit would have taken a maximum of 1,335 days, this relates to the bull-run in late 2013, when Bitcoin price surged to $1150. If you had bought in right at the top, then it took 1,335 days before Bitcoin finally broke that level in early 2017.
According to new analysis, presented Sept. 8, the amount of time it is necessary to have held Bitcoin to make a profit is 1,335 days or roughly 3 years and 8 months. This roughly correlates to the four-year cycle length based on reward halving periods.
Profiting from bitcoin is largely a waiting game
Assuming you missed buying the peak of that rally, your wait for profit would have been considerably less. Holding Bitcoin for 317 days would have given you a 75% chance of profit. There was a 60% chance of profit of you held Bitcoin for 35 days, and the likelihood that you were up over any single day was 50%.
If that seems like a long time, check the S&P 500
For comparison, to achieve a sure profit on the S&P 500, you would have to have held it for 23 years.
Also, bear in mind that this analysis purely looks at the chance of profit and not the scale of that profit. When Bitcoin is on a bull-run, profits dwarf those achievable on stock market indices.
For example, the Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust outperformed everything so far in 2019 with an almost 300% appreciation YTD, as reported by Cointelegraph in July.
Ether, XRP Rise to 1-Month Highs While Bitcoin Falls
Demand for alternative cryptocurrencies has seen their performance rise over the last 24 hours despite bitcoin’s (BTC) failure to take another leg up.
It raises the question as to whether the “alt season”, a period where alternative crypto sees considerable growth regardless of BTC’s performance, is finally here.
Ether (ETH) and XRP (XRP) rose between six to 10 percent on the day backed by solid demand seen in large 24-hour trading volumes.
The event marks a divergence from recent weeks with BTC’s dominance rating, a share of the total crypto market value, having hit a 30-month high above 70 percent earlier this month.
That number has since dropped to 68.3 percent as interest in alternative cryptos begins to pick up once more.
As seen above, both XRP and ETH experienced swift rallies in their price between 10 pm on Sept. 17 and 3:00 am Sept. 18, while BTC was down 1 percent over the same period.
Other notable crypto assets such as Stellar (XLM), Binance Coin (BNB) and Litecoin (LTC) are also up between 2.5 and nine percent.
The total market capitalization of all crypto, excluding BTC, also rose by more than $5.4 billion over 24 hours, while total trading volume was up $7.2 billion.
It could be a sign that investors are growing wary of any further potential gains in BTC’s growth and looking elsewhere, given that its price has remained within a $300 range for nearly 2 weeks.